Inflation will fall in 2023 according to Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs, dubbed the bank that rules the world, “anticipates a ‘significant’ decline in U.S. inflation next year as supply chains ease, wage growth and a spike in house prices.

The quantified objectives of the major American investment bank are as follows.

“Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation, the measure favored by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), at 2.9% by December 2023 compared to the current 5.1%”.

Goldman Sachs is probably partly right.

Indeed, inflation should fall next year and be less strong than during the 10% peak that we have just experienced in 2022, but inflation will remain permanently much higher than what it was before this peak in 2022. And again, all of this is contingent on us not experiencing another significant supply shock.

The next candidate is the Sino-American conflict which in itself harbors a formidable inflation potential where there we would not be at 10% as with Russia, but at a peak of between 20 and 30% in because of the violence of the de-globalization that this would impose and because unlike Russia, China remains the factory of the world, including the factory of the United States.

Charles SANNAT

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